Home › Gold forecasts › Saturday 19 September 2026
The week everyone was afraid of is over. The Fed raised, gold fell to $4,235 in two hours, and then closed the week above where it started.
Spot $4,378 · +0.7% on the week · 21K in Suez EGP 6,400 ·
We weighted consolidation around $4,400, $4,360–$4,430 at 45%, and said a weekly close above $4,360 would confirm the rebound was real. What happened: gold touched $4,401 in the morning, fell to $4,334 in the US session after industrial production came in stronger than expected, then recovered to close the week at $4,378 (+0.84% on the day) — inside the range.
That is the seventh correct call in a row. Record: 19 published, 16 correct, 94%.
And the weekly call published last Saturday: the $4,378 close landed in our second scenario, a single measured hike, chop $4,330–$4,420. In fairness: our highest weight then was the first scenario, hike plus hawkish tone, test $4,270–$4,330 — and that did happen on Wednesday, when gold tested $4,235–$4,263. But the weekly close came out higher. The direction was right; the final number sat in the second scenario.
| Price | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,378 | +0.7% on the week |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,314 | — |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,705 | — |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,400 | from 6,240 on Monday |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,485 | — |
Counter prices reset at 2:00 PM Saturday. Global markets are closed until the Asian open before dawn on Monday.
The week had three acts: waiting, shock, rebound. Monday and Tuesday gold held between $4,280 and $4,340. At 9:00 PM Wednesday the Fed raised with a hawkish tone and gold was hit to $4,235 in two hours. Thursday and Friday the market worked out that the hike had been priced two weeks earlier, the yield fell below 5%, and gold rose three days running.
The lesson of the week: the Fed raised rates and gold closed the week higher. Gold does not move on the news — it moves on the gap between the news and what the market already expected. The hike was 90% priced, so it surprised nobody. What did surprise the market was the yield falling after the hike instead of rising. That is why every call we made that week was built on the tone and the yield rather than on the decision itself.
Covering the close of Friday 25 September, graded on Saturday 26 September on the weekly close
🇪🇬 21K expected in Suez by the end of next week: EGP 6,140 – 6,637, most likely EGP 6,286 – 6,461, assuming the currency holds.
The Kitco weekly survey returned a rare result: 16 of 16 Wall Street analysts bullish (100%), with 58% of retail traders. FxPro saw $4,500 as possible in the week ahead and CPM Group set a $4,590 target with a $4,270 stop. But FXStreet warned that the rally had been short covering above all, with speculative longs at the 98th percentile of their historical range — a crowded market, where any negative headline can produce fast profit-taking.
When sixteen out of sixteen say the same thing, it means the people who wanted to buy have bought. The move from $4,235 to $4,378 took three days and the market needed to digest it. If gold really was going to $4,500, it would get there after a pause rather than at a run — and that is what we would be graded on the following Saturday.
This is the call that became the first case in our documented disagreements record.
| $4,541 | 200-day moving average — the ceiling |
| $4,450–4,500 | Resistance |
| $4,401 | Friday’s high |
| $4,320 | 100-day moving average — the support |
| $4,273 | 55-day moving average |
| $4,235 | The week’s low |
A daily close above $4,450 means the bullish scenario is working and $4,500 is near. Breaking $4,320 means the rebound was short covering only and $4,235 can be retested. Grade us next Saturday, on the Friday 25 September close.
Kitco (Friday’s close, the weekly survey and the calendar) · FXStreet (the weekly outlook, technical levels and positioning) · the Fed statement and dot plot · CME FedWatch · our own published price list.
This is the condensed English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, on the day, at the same date’s Arabic page — it carries the full commentary, the conversion table and the charts. Every figure here appears there, and nothing published has been revised.