Home › Gold forecasts › Friday 6 November 2026
⏱ Transparency note: this report was written on Friday 6 November at 1:30 PM Cairo (two hours before the jobs report) but was not published until Monday 9 November because of a fault in our upload tool. Its grading in Monday’s report carries a ⏱ mark.
Thursday was the worst day for US equities since April 2025: the S&P 500 −4.4% and the Nasdaq −5.5% (a formal correction). And gold? It was not sold with them as much as we feared: it closed at $4,087 (+0.6%) after touching $4,148 — only $61 off the high. Our call closed in the second box by $3, but the condition failed by 4 points in the S&P, so the verdict is right by luck. This morning the liquidation is showing: gold at $4,070 (−0.4%) with a low of $4,035, and “positions being liquidated to free up cash”. At 3:30 PM Cairo the jobs report (65,000 expected), and at midnight the weekly close and the verdict on the weekly call — gold is now inside the third box ($3,950–$4,100) after sitting above it yesterday. In Egypt: the bank dollar fell to 53.92 — 1.82 pounds in a week — and the gram is at EGP 6,230.
Spot now $4,070 · Trade dollar EGP 54.41 · banks 53.92 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,230 ·
We published yesterday at 7:00 PM: 40% gold holds above $4,100 ($4,090–$4,150) · 35% the liquidity chain kicks in ($4,020–$4,090) · 25% the flight into gold continues ($4,150–$4,210). The close was $4,087.26 (Kitco) and $4,087.70 (Trading Economics) — both inside the second, only $3 below the dividing line. Right range, wrong order (we ranked it second).
The second box’s confirming number was “the S&P 500 closing at 7,350 or below”. The S&P closed at 7,353.73 — 4 points (0.05%) above the line. So equities fell 4.4%, exactly the scenario, and the condition failed by a hair. On the reading harshest to us: right by luck. We will not call it “close” — the rule is the rule.
⚖️ But this has to be recorded: the threshold sat 1.1% from the price at the time of writing (correction five applied), and the market fell exactly 1.1% and stopped on the line. That is the third time in two weeks a verdict was decided by less than 1% (Tuesday 27 October by 20 cents, Tuesday 3 November by $4, and today by 4 points). We will not change the rule to win — but on Saturday we will ask whether 1% is enough in a week where daily moves run 3–4%.
Record: 60 published · 57 graded · 52 correct · 91% (the weekly call and today’s call are open). This week: 4 of 4 on range, 3 of 4 on the number, 1 of 4 on order. Thursday’s call → · How grading works →
The weekly call was written on Saturday 31 October: 35% the liquidation runs on ($3,700–$3,850) · 30% a low being built ($3,850–$3,950) · 25% a bounce ($3,950–$4,100, its condition jobs at 40,000 or fewer, or the 10-year yield at 4.85% or below) · 10% the tail box (below $3,700).
The ounce is now $4,070 — inside the third, $30 under its ceiling. Yesterday it was above the ceiling. So tonight’s verdict has three possibilities:
Tomorrow morning: the full weekly table (six forecasts), the verdict, the amended correction seven (a tail box open at both ends), and next week’s call — a week with US CPI and the first COMEX positioning report after the election.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,070 | −$17 on Thursday’s close (−0.4%) · high 4,108 · low 4,035 |
| 💱 Trade dollar (implied) | EGP 54.41 | banks 53.92 · premium 0.9% |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,120 | −11 |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,230 | −10 on Wednesday |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,340 | −8 |
➡️ 21K at EGP 6,230 — from today’s counter update (1:00 PM), down 10 pounds on Wednesday (6,240). The ounce is up $25 since then (4,045 →
4,070) and the dollar down 43 piastres, so the dollar won by a little (+39 and −49 pounds). The official price is at
today’s prices.
💱 The Souq El Dahab app (Friday 1:00 AM): a bank-dollar average of 53.92 — down from 55.37 on Tuesday and 55.74 last
Saturday, so 1.82 pounds in a week (−3.3%). A market trade dollar of 54.40, a market 21K average of EGP 6,220 (selling), and
the ounce on screen at $4,066.90. Our premium is 0.9% (54.41 against 53.92) — and our implied figure now matches the market trade dollar (54.40) to the piastre. Our rule: a premium at 1% or above is a
warning, and we are a hair under it because the banks are running down faster than the trade can follow.
📊 Why the dollar is falling this fast: the central bank raised rates by 100 basis points on 29 October and bill yields went to 25%, so hot
money came back: foreigners and Arabs net bought $112 million of bills on Tuesday (a small $21 million sale on Wednesday) and net bought EGP 223 million
of shares on Thursday. The Exchange set a new record on Thursday (51,152, +1%) — on the same day US stocks fell 4%. And this is the most
important sentence in the report for a customer: the ounce rose 5% this week and the gram rose less than 1% (6,180 → 6,230), because the dollar
fell 3%. The falling dollar ate four of every five pounds the gram should have gained.
If the ounce moves $50, the gram moves about 77 pounds. If the trade dollar moves one pound, the gram moves about 114 pounds. If the trade caught the banks now (53.92), the gram would fall about 56 pounds without the ounce moving. If the banks went on to 53 next week, another 170.
| Ounce ↓ · Dollar → | 53 | 54 | 55 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $3,950 (floor of the third weekly box) | 5,889 | 6,000 | 6,111 |
| $4,000 (the psychological number) | 5,963 | 6,076 | 6,189 |
| $4,070 (the price now) | 6,068 | 6,182 | 6,297 |
| $4,100 (the weekly ceiling) | 6,113 | 6,228 | 6,343 |
| $4,200 | 6,262 | 6,380 | 6,498 |
📍 Our gram at 6,230 sits between the “4,070 × 54” and “× 55” cells. If jobs print weak and gold rises to $4,150 but the dollar falls to 53, the gram is about 6,190 — below today despite the ounce rising $80. If gold falls to $4,000 with the dollar at 54, the gram is 6,076 — down 164. Raw metal before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
Covering the Friday 6 November session — New York close and the weekly close · a scheduled-release day (the jobs report at 8:30 AM ET, 65,000 expected after 29,000, unemployment 4.2%), so under correction four the condition is the number plus the close, and it sits on the surprise · the liquidity signature is showing (equities −4.4% yesterday, gold down today), so the downside box is $60 wide (correction six)
⚠️ Ranked on behaviour: a scheduled-release day, and our rule is that when the number prints as expected, calm comes first. Gold is moving in a narrow range today (4,035–4,108) waiting for the number. But the liquidity chain has been running since yesterday, so the fall is second, not third — and the bounce third even though a weak jobs number is plausible.
🇪🇬 21K in Suez on Saturday morning — on three trade-dollar assumptions:
Steady at 54.41: EGP 6,076 – 6,352, most likely 6,168 – 6,260
Up one pound (55.41): EGP 6,188 – 6,468, most likely 6,281 – 6,375
Down one pound (53.41): EGP 5,965 – 6,235, most likely 6,055 – 6,145
The banks have fallen five days running and the premium is 0.9%, so the first or the third assumption — and the third is the one winning this
week.
✏️ The first box is $60 and the downside box $60 (correction six), and the jobs thresholds sit at least 20,000 from the consensus (correction four: the condition sits on the surprise). Tonight is also the weekly verdict — in the map above.
Equities yesterday — the biggest story: the S&P 500 7,353.73 (−4.4%), the worst day since April 2025. The Nasdaq
−5.5% (a formal correction, 12% below its record). The Dow −1,833 points. The VIX +70% to 28. The reason: fears of tougher AI and chip regulation
under a Democratic Congress. Futures are calm today (S&P +0.02%, Nasdaq +0.9%).
Gold held yesterday, and is being liquidated today: Kitco: gold “retained much of its post-election recovery as investors sought
defensive assets”. Today, KCM Trade: “in risk-off conditions like this, we’re seeing gold positions get liquidated to free up cash”.
Kitco levels: resistance $4,146 and $4,212 · support $4,075 (broken today) and $3,989.
Oil: Brent settled at $98.29 (+3.9%, January contract) on attacks on three tankers in Hormuz (two of them supertankers); Iran
sent a nuclear proposal to Washington via Qatar and demands the blockade and sanctions be lifted before reopening the strait. Trump: a decision
“soon enough”. Today $99.9. Even so, Brent is heading for a weekly loss of about 12%.
The Fed and the yield: December hike odds fell to 68% (83% on Wednesday) after the equity collapse. The yield 4.84% (the lowest
since early September). The dollar 101.6–101.8.
Goldman cut: its end-2026 forecast from $4,650 to $4,150, and end-2027 from $5,400 to $4,800 — citing a hawkish Fed. Citi still
$4,500 in 0–3 months. The World Bank: above $4,000 through 2028. COMEX speculators (last report, 27 October): a net long of 105,562 contracts — the
new report tonight at 10:30 PM Cairo covers election day.
Silver: $51.9 — sold with industry yesterday (−0.8%) while gold rose.
Yesterday was the real test of the liquidity chain: equities fell 4.4% in a day. On 22 and 30 October, smaller falls dragged gold down $116 and $145. Yesterday gold fell only $61 from its high and closed up. The difference? The dollar and the yield were falling yesterday (the exact opposite of October), so gold had something holding it up. So the liquidity chain works when the dollar and the yield rise alongside falling equities, not when they fall. That detail goes into our definition of the “liquidity signature” from Saturday.
And the lesson for you: this week the ounce +5% and the gram under +1%. The dollar fell 1.82 pounds in a week. Whoever bought a gram on Saturday at 6,180 with the ounce at 3,876 has seen the ounce rise 5% and the gram under 1%. That is not bad luck — it is what “the gram in Egypt = the ounce × the dollar” means. When the dollar falls this fast, the gram is far calmer than the ounce in both directions.
| $4,212 | Kitco resistance |
| $4,150 | Ceiling of today’s scenarios |
| $4,148 | The week’s high |
| $4,146 | Kitco resistance |
| $4,100 | The weekly ceiling — a close above it makes the weekly call wrong |
| $4,090 | The line between calm and the bounce |
| $4,087 | Thursday’s close |
| $4,075 | Kitco support (broken) |
| $4,070 | The price now |
| $4,035 | Today’s low |
| $4,030 | The line between calm and the fall |
| $4,000 | The psychological number |
| $3,989 | Kitco support |
| $3,970 | Floor of today’s scenarios |
| $3,950 | Floor of the third weekly box |
| EGP 54.41 | The implied trade dollar |
| EGP 54.40 | The market trade dollar |
| EGP 53.92 | The bank-dollar average (down 1.82 in a week) — a premium of 0.9% |
Today at 8:30 AM ET: payrolls between 45,000 and 85,000 means $4,030–$4,090. 90,000 or more, or the S&P at 7,280, means below $4,030. 40,000 or fewer means above $4,090. And at midnight: $3,950–$4,100 = the third weekly box (with the yield at 4.85 deciding the number) · above $4,100 = the weekly call wrong.
Friday 3:30 PM: the jobs report (65,000 expected, unemployment 4.2%, wages 0.3%) · 5:00 PM: Michigan ·
Williams, Musalem, Bowman and Logan · 10:30 PM: the CFTC COMEX positioning report for election day · midnight: the weekly
close and the verdicts on today’s call and the weekly call.
Saturday morning: the full weekly table (six forecasts) + the verdict + the amended correction seven + the new definition of the liquidity
signature + next week’s call.
Next week: US CPI on Wednesday 11 November · the mediation round in Abu Dhabi on 10–11 November.
Thursday’s close ($4,087.26), Thursday’s high ($4,148), the Thursday PM report and its levels, silver, Brent ($98.29) and WTI from Kitco; Thursday’s close ($4,087.70) and spot from Trading Economics; spot ($4,070 at 5:17 AM ET) and today’s high and low ($4,107.90 / $4,035.50) from Kitco; Thursday’s closes for the S&P 500 (7,353.73), the Nasdaq (24,315), the Dow, the yield and the VIX from CappNotes; the KCM Trade comment, the Asian-session price ($4,044), December odds (68%) and the jobs consensus (65,000, Reuters poll) from Reuters via Business Recorder and Investing.com; Goldman ($4,150) and Citi ($4,500) from Reuters via TradingView and FinanceFeeds; the World Bank from Kitco (5 November); Hormuz, the Iranian proposal and Trump from Gulf News and Reuters via CNBC; COMEX positioning (105,562) from the CFTC via MetalCharts; morning futures from Yahoo Finance. Egypt: the bank-dollar average (53.92), the market trade dollar (54.40), the market 21K average (6,220) and the on-screen ounce ($4,066.90) from the Souq El Dahab app, 6 November, 1:00 AM; the Exchange on Thursday (51,152) and foreign trading in shares from Amwal Al Ghad; bills ($112 million Tuesday, $21 million Wednesday) from Hapi Journal citing Exchange data; the implied trade dollar (54.41) computed from our counter price and the ounce; counter prices from our own published price list, updated 6 November at 1:00 PM. Not found: Thursday’s exact low, the Kitco AM report, and the Kitco weekly survey (out tonight).
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.