Home › Gold forecasts › Monday 9 November 2026
⏱ Transparency note: this report was written on Monday 9 November at 1:30 PM Cairo (before Monday’s close and before the CPI print) but was not published until Wednesday 11 November because of a fault in our upload tool. The grading of its calls carries a ⏱ mark.
Gold closed the week at $4,070 (+4.4%, the best week in two months) after starting it at $3,876. Election week turned out to be oil week: Brent fell 13%, the Democrats took both chambers, and payrolls printed 165,000 (more than double the consensus) — and gold did not care. Our weekly call closed inside the third box, the one we ranked third, and its condition failed by 0.01% in the yield — so the verdict is right by luck. The weekly table: range 6 of 6, number 3 of 6, order 2 of 6. Today gold is $4,105 (+0.9%) after touching $4,143 in Asia, China bought another 26 tonnes, and a December hike is priced at 81%. The new weekly call (the Friday 13 November close) is built on today’s data, under the amended correction seven: a tail box open at both ends. In Egypt: the banks stopped falling (54.09), and the gram is EGP 6,230.
Spot now $4,105 · Weekly close $4,070 (+4.4%) · Trade dollar EGP 53.95 · banks 54.09 ·
The weekly call (published Saturday 31 October): 35% the liquidation runs on ($3,700–$3,850) · 30% a low being built ($3,850–$3,950) · 25% a bounce ($3,950–$4,100) · 10% the tail box (below $3,700). The close was $4,070.10 (Kitco) and $4,070.41 (Trading Economics) — inside the third. Right range, wrong order (we ranked it third).
The third box’s confirming number was “jobs at 40,000 or fewer, or the 10-year yield at 4.85% or below”. Jobs printed 165,000 (the opposite), and the yield closed the week at 4.86% — 0.01 above the line. On the reading harshest to us: right by luck. More important: the story we wrote (weak jobs easing hike bets) was the exact opposite of what happened — jobs were strong and December odds rose to 81%, and gold rose anyway because oil fell 13% and the election changed the picture.
⏱ Friday’s daily call (written Friday 1:30 PM, published today): 40% jobs as expected ($4,030–$4,090) · 35% strong jobs ($3,970–$4,030) · 25% weak jobs ($4,090–$4,150). The close was $4,070 — inside the first, the order right. But the number: 165,000 was the second box’s condition (90,000 or more) — gold did fall to $4,035 after the print, then recovered and closed in the first. Verdict: right by luck. We count it with a ⏱ mark because it was not published before the close — the file is dated, but the public did not see it. If anyone thinks it should not count, we understand.
Record: 62 published · 59 graded · 54 correct · 92% (today’s call and the new weekly call are open). Friday’s call → · How grading works →
| Forecast | Close | Range | Order | Confirming number | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 | 3,947.03 | ✅ second | ❌ | ✅ Brent 104.77 | Right for the reason, wrong order |
| Tue 3 | 3,924.10 | ✅ third (by $4) | ❌ | ✅ Brent 103.60 | Right for the reason, wrong order |
| Wed 4 | 4,065.90 | ✅ first | ✅ | ✅ Brent 94.62 | Right for the reason |
| Thu 5 | 4,087.26 | ✅ second (by $3) | ❌ | ❌ S&P 7,354, not 7,350 | Right by luck |
| Fri 6 ⏱ | 4,070.10 | ✅ first | ✅ | ❌ jobs 165,000 | Right by luck |
| Weekly (31 Oct) | 4,070.10 | ✅ third | ❌ | ❌ yield 4.86, not 4.85 | Right by luck |
Compared with last week:
🟢 Range: 6 of 6 (last week 5 of 6). The first full week in which the price never ran past the boxes — though three
verdicts sat on the edge ($3, $4 and 4 points).
⚫ Number: 3 of 6 — the same as last week. All three that held were on oil; all three that failed were on equities, jobs and
the yield.
🔴 Order: 2 of 6 (last week 4 of 6). A step back. One cause: “calm first” before a big event failed three times because oil was
deciding, not the event.
⚫ Fully right: 1 of 6 (last week 2).
So this week the boxes were in place, but our ranking and our reasons were looking at the Fed and jobs while the market was looking at oil and the election. That is what the correction below is about.
(a) A tail box at both ends. On Saturday 31 October we put a tail box open only at the bottom (10%). This week gold ran up $272 in four days and cleared the call’s ceiling ($4,100) on Thursday — and we had no box above. The rule from today: when the week carries an open major event (an election, a war decision, a pivotal Fed meeting, or negotiations like Qatar–Iran), the tail box is open at both ends — 10% above and 10% below — taken out of the three main boxes. If the price lands in either tail: the range counts as right, the order as wrong.
(b) The liquidity signature now has three conditions, not two. We used to say “equities, the yield and gold falling together”. On Thursday 5 November equities fell 4.4% and gold fell only $61 from its high — because the dollar and the yield were falling. On 22 and 30 October the dollar and the yield were rising with falling equities, and gold was sold for $116 and $145. The new definition: the liquidity signature = equities falling plus the dollar or the yield rising. If the dollar and the yield fall with equities, that is a flight into gold, not liquidity — and the $60 box (correction six) does not apply.
(c) The ranking rule in oil weeks. When Brent moves more than 3% in a day on an open geopolitical story, the order follows oil (falling = the rise first, rising = the fall first), and “calm first” waits. Applied on Wednesday, it worked; it would have fixed Monday and Tuesday.
The earlier rules stand: 1 thresholds read “at or above” · 2 a 0.12 band on the yield · 3 calm is confirmed by the size of the move · 4 on a scheduled release, the condition is the number plus the close, on the surprise · 5 a threshold sits 1% / 0.06 from the price · 6 the liquidity box, $60 / $150. An open question for this week: is 1% enough (correction five) in a week where three verdicts were decided by less than 0.1%? We will watch and decide on Saturday.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,105 | +$35 on Friday’s close (+0.9%) · high 4,143 · low 4,063 |
| 💱 Trade dollar (implied) | EGP 53.95 | banks 54.09 · the trade below the banks |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,120 | |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,230 | +50 on the week (+0.8%) |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,340 |
➡️ 21K at EGP 6,230 — the counter price set on Sunday at noon; the ounce has risen about $35 since, so the
implied dollar fell to 53.95 — below the banks (54.09) and below the market trade dollar (54.03). So our gram has not yet caught up with
this morning’s rise in the ounce. The official price is at today’s prices.
💱 The Souq El Dahab app (Monday 1:30 AM): a bank-dollar average of 54.09 — up 17 piastres on Friday
(53.92), the first rise after a week of falling from 55.74. A market trade dollar of 54.03 (down from 54.40) — the trade is now below the
banks for the first time in weeks; a market 21K average of EGP 6,245 (selling); the ounce on screen at $4,107.80. The premium has turned negative
(−0.1%). That happens when the ounce rises fast and the trade cannot reprice in time — either the gram rises 20–30 pounds to catch up, or
the ounce calms.
📊 Egypt last week: about $400 million of hot money came back over the week (Masrawy); the Exchange set a record on Thursday (51,152) and
eased 0.7% on Sunday (50,812) with small foreign selling (EGP 28 million). Sunday’s bill auction: EGP 95 billion sought, 115 billion accepted
(strong demand), the 91-day yield at 24.86% (a touch down from 25.00) and the 273-day at 26.26%. A slightly lower yield = strong demand for
bills = a steadier dollar. That explains the banks pausing at 54.
In short: professionals think gold “rose too much too fast” and are waiting for inflation and the Fed; Main Street, central banks and China are still buying. The decision sits at $4,150 (last week’s high and FXEmpire’s level) and $3,975 (Chandler’s line and CPM’s stop).
A week with one big number: US CPI on Tuesday at 8:30 AM ET (0.3% headline and 0.2% core m/m expected) · an open event: Qatar’s prime minister at the White House today and the Iran talks (Trump: new strikes “highly unlikely” if talks progress; Rubio: not “on the verge of a breakthrough”) · the US bond market closed on Wednesday · PPI on Friday. So the call is written under the amended correction seven: a tail box at both ends.
⚠️ Ranked on behaviour: last week +4.4%, today +0.9% with a touch of $4,143 in Asia, China buying, positions light. The behaviour is up. But professionals are 38% bearish, a December hike is priced at 81%, and resistance at $4,150 is close. So calm first (a scheduled-number week), the rise second because the behaviour is up, and the fall third.
🇪🇬 21K at the end of the week — on three trade-dollar assumptions:
Steady at 53.95: EGP 5,842 – 6,524 (from $3,850 to $4,300), most likely 6,069 – 6,297
Up one pound (54.95): EGP 5,950 – 6,645, most likely 6,182 – 6,414
Down one pound (52.95): EGP 5,733 – 6,403, most likely 5,957 – 6,180
The banks have paused at 54 after a week of falling and bill demand is strong, so the first assumption is the likeliest — for the first time in two
weeks the dollar is not the one deciding.
✏️ Five boxes instead of four: the three main boxes carry 80% and the two tails 20% (correction seven, amended). Every threshold carries its distance from the price (correction five). If you find one too close, write to us.
Covering the Monday 9 November session — New York close · no major US release · three Fed speakers (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) · Qatar’s prime minister at the White House · the liquidity signature is not showing (equities +0.2%, gold up)
⚠️ Ranked on behaviour: gold has been rising since Friday, and Brent is down 1.8% today (the oil rule: falling = the rise before the fall). But the move is only 0.9% and still below $4,150, so calm first and the rise second.
🇪🇬 21K in Suez on Tuesday morning — on three trade-dollar assumptions:
Steady at 53.95: EGP 6,084 – 6,358, most likely 6,175 – 6,267
Up one pound (54.95): EGP 6,197 – 6,475, most likely 6,290 – 6,383
Down one pound (52.95): EGP 5,972 – 6,240, most likely 6,061 – 6,150
The trade is below the banks today, so the gram most likely catches up a little even if the ounce holds.
If the ounce moves $50, the gram moves about 76 pounds. If the trade dollar moves one pound, the gram moves about 115 pounds. Last week: the ounce +$194 = +295 pounds, the dollar −1.82 = −210 pounds. Net: the gram +50 (6,180 → 6,230). This week the banks are steady, so the ounce will move the gram — for the first time in two weeks.
| Ounce ↓ · Dollar → | 53 | 54 | 55 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $3,850 (the lower tail line) | 5,740 | 5,848 | 5,956 |
| $4,000 (the first dividing line) | 5,963 | 6,076 | 6,189 |
| $4,105 (the price now) | 6,120 | 6,235 | 6,351 |
| $4,150 (the second dividing line) | 6,187 | 6,304 | 6,421 |
| $4,300 (the upper tail line) | 6,411 | 6,532 | 6,653 |
📍 Our gram at 6,230 is roughly the “4,105 × 54” cell. If gold breaks $4,150 and reaches $4,300 with the dollar at 54, the gram is 6,532 — up 300. If gold returns to $4,000 with the dollar steady, 6,076 — down 154. And if gold rises to $4,300 but the dollar falls to 53, 6,411 — half the rise. Raw metal before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
Monday 2: Brent −7.6% on the Qatar talks, gold +71 to 3,947 despite a hot ISM (55.5).
Tuesday 3: election day, the Qeshm strike, Brent swinging 101–107 and settling at 103.60. Gold 3,924. The banks down to 55.37.
Wednesday 4: the Democrats took both chambers, Brent −8.7% to 94.62, the dollar at a one-month low, and gold +3.5% to 4,066 —
back above 4,000. The gram +100 to 6,240.
Thursday 5: the S&P −4.4% and the Nasdaq −5.5% (the worst day since April 2025) on AI-regulation fears. Gold touched 4,148 and closed at
4,087 — not sold, because the dollar and the yield were falling. The BoE hiked to 4%. The Egyptian Exchange at a record.
Friday 6: payrolls 165,000 (65,000 expected), unemployment 4.1%, wages 0.4%. December odds back to 80%. Gold dipped to 4,035 and closed at
4,070. The week: gold +4.4%, Brent −13%, the S&P −2.7%, the yield from 4.94 to 4.86. The banks 53.92.
The weekend: “minor” US strikes on Qeshm on Saturday, the IRGC lifted its missile-range cap, tankers struck mines east of Hormuz, and
Houthi missile debris hit an Aramco building in Riyadh. Trump on Sunday: new strikes “highly unlikely” if the talks progress — but he named 38 bridges
as potential targets. China bought 26 tonnes of gold in October.
Range 6 of 6 for the first time. That means the box sizes are now right (corrections five and six worked). But the number 3 of 6 and the order 2 of 6 — and every miss came from writing the reasons on the Fed, jobs and equities while the market moved on oil and the election. So we know where gold is going, and we do not know why. Today’s correction addresses that with three things: a two-sided tail, a sharper definition of liquidity, and the oil rule for ranking.
Friday’s lesson on its own matters: payrolls printed 165,000 — two and a half times the consensus — and gold fell $35 and came back. In September a number like that would have knocked gold down $100. The market now treats “the Fed will hike” as old, priced news; the new news is oil and the deficit. That changes the weight of scheduled numbers in our conditions — which is why tomorrow’s CPI sits in the conditions alongside oil, not alone.
And the lesson for you: a week in which the ounce rose 4.4%, the gram rose only 0.8% — the dollar ate the rest. This week the banks are steady at 54 and hot money is stable, so if the ounce moves, the gram will feel it in full. For the first time in two weeks, the ounce forecast is roughly the gram forecast.
| $4,400 | FXEmpire’s target if $4,150 breaks |
| $4,300 | The upper tail line |
| $4,275 | CPM’s target |
| $4,212 | Kitco resistance |
| $4,190 | Ceiling of today’s scenarios |
| $4,150 | The second weekly dividing line and last week’s high |
| $4,143 | Today’s high |
| $4,130 | The daily dividing line |
| $4,105 | The price now |
| $4,070 | Friday’s close and the lower daily line |
| $4,035 | Friday’s low |
| $4,010 | Floor of today’s scenarios |
| $4,000 | The first weekly dividing line |
| $3,975 | Chandler’s line and CPM’s stop |
| $3,935 | Chandler’s support |
| $3,850 | The lower tail line |
| EGP 53.95 | The implied trade dollar |
| EGP 54.03 | The market trade dollar |
| EGP 54.09 | The bank-dollar average (paused) — the premium is negative |
Today: Brent 94–99 means $4,070–$4,130. Brent 94 or the yield 4.79 means above $4,130. Brent 99 or the S&P 7,300 means below $4,070. The week: core CPI 0.2–0.3 means $4,000–$4,150 · 0.1 or below, or the yield 4.75, or Brent 88 means $4,150–$4,300 · 0.4 or more, or Brent 105, means $3,850–$4,000 · the tails above $4,300 and below $3,850.
Monday 9: Qatar’s prime minister at the White House · Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin · midnight: the New York close and
the verdict on today’s call.
Tuesday 10, 3:30 PM: US CPI for October (0.3% headline and 0.2% core m/m expected; note the BLS will not publish some 12-month changes
because of the 2025 shutdown gap) · Waller before the print, Logan, Bowman and Schmid after.
Wednesday 11: Veterans Day — the US bond market closed, equities open · Lagarde.
Thursday 12, 3:30 PM: jobless claims (195,000 expected) · UK GDP · Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, Daly, Williams.
Friday 13, 3:30 PM: PPI (0.4% expected) · Bowman, Daly · midnight: the weekly close and the verdict on the weekly
call. Saturday the full table.
Open all week: the Iran talks (Qatar and Pakistan mediating) — any deal or strike headline moves oil 5–10% in a day, and gold with it.
Friday’s close ($4,070.10), the jobs report and reaction and the Kitco weekly survey from Kitco (6 November); Friday’s close ($4,070.41) and spot from Trading Economics; payrolls (165,000, 4.1%, 0.4%) and revisions from the BLS; spot today ($4,123 at 04:28 GMT, $4,112 at 06:46), December odds (81%) and the UBS comments from Reuters; today’s high and low from hourly data; Friday’s closes for the S&P 500 (7,376.86), the Nasdaq, the Dow, the yield (4.86) and the dollar (102.3) and Brent (97.7) from The Closing Print and CappNotes; Brent today ($96.52) from The National; COMEX positioning (103,614) from the CFTC via MetalCharts; China’s purchases (26 tonnes) from SAFE data via Bloomberg; Iran, Hormuz and the weekend from Reuters via Arab News, CBS News and The National (7–9 November); Goldman, Citi, JPMorgan, UBS, CPM, Chandler, Day and Streible from Kitco and Reuters (4–7 November); the calendar and the CPI consensus from Rio Times, Yardeni and Financial Juice. Egypt: the bank-dollar average (54.09), the market trade dollar (54.03), the market 21K average (6,245) and the on-screen ounce ($4,107.80) from the Souq El Dahab app, 9 November, 1:30 AM; the Exchange on Sunday (50,812) and foreign trading from Economy Trend; Sunday’s bill auction (EGP 115 billion, 24.86%) from Amwal Al Ghad; hot money ($400 million over the week) from Masrawy; the implied trade dollar (53.95) computed from our counter price and the ounce; counter prices from our own published price list, updated 8 November at 12:00 PM. Not found: Sunday’s foreign flows in bills, confirmation of the Abu Dhabi round, and the Kitco AM report.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.